SOFTWARE ENGINEER & ECONOMIST & INSANE PERSON WHO WANTS TO REDIRECT 1% OF GLOBAL MILITARY SPENDING TO PRAGMATIC CLINICAL TRIALS
VERY CONCERNED ABOUT HOW HUMANITY SPENDS 40 TIMES MORE ON WAR THAN CURING DISEASE. TRYING TO CHANGE THIS WITH SPREADSHEETS AND ECONOMIC MODELS.
I BUILT A DECENTRALIZED FDA PLATFORM THAT PUBLISHED OVER 50,000 CAUSAL INFERENCE STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF FOODS, DRUGS, AND SUPPLEMENTS ON HUMAN HEALTH.
THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX REMAINS UNBOTHERED. CHRONIC ILLNESS REMAINS UNRESOLVED.
I'VE TRACKED THESE METRICS BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT DATA PEOPLE DO. WE COUNT THINGS. IT'S VERY SATISFYING. WHETHER IT'S HELPFUL IS A SEPARATE QUESTION.
1.7 BILLION PEOPLE HAVE CHRONIC DISEASES.
I HAVE GENERATED 50,000+ STUDIES ABOUT IT.
WE ARE NOT SOLVING THIS AT THE SAME RATE.
BUILD PLATFORMS THAT AGGREGATE HEALTH DATA FROM MILLIONS OF PEOPLE TO DISCOVER WHAT ACTUALLY HELPS.
THIS IS A BIT LIKE TRYING TO SOLVE WORLD HUNGER BY CREATING A REALLY THOROUGH SPREADSHEET OF EVERYONE WHO'S HUNGRY.
IN THEORY IT HELPS. IN PRACTICE, THE SPREADSHEET IS NOW VERY LARGE.
THE PLATFORM
I'VE PUBLISHED OVER 50,000 CAUSAL INFERENCE STUDIES. LIKE, MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD.
THE SECRET IS NOT HAVING ANY FRIENDS AND NEGLECTING YOUR FAMILY.
I'VE GENERATED META-ANALYSES FOR 90%+ OF CONDITION/TREATMENT PAIRS.
I'VE CREATED TREATMENT RANKINGS FOR 100+ CONDITIONS.
I'VE AGGREGATED 14 MILLION DATA POINTS FROM THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE.
THE REALITY CHECK:
THINK BY NUMBERS
DATA-DRIVEN PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS. 2M+ VISITORS. ARTICLES INCLUDE "DOES GUN CONTROL REDUCE VIOLENT CRIME?" AND "WHY DRUG PROHIBITION INCREASES VIOLENCE."
THE POLICY REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. BUT THE CHARTS ARE QUITE COMPELLING.
FORESIGHT INSTITUTE FELLOWSHIP
I'M A FORESIGHT INSTITUTE FELLOW. THIS IS A REAL THING. THEY STUDY "EXISTENTIAL HOPE," WHICH IS ALSO A REAL ACADEMIC TERM.
I PRESENTED "THE PROSPERA FDA" AT THE 2022 LONGEVITY WORKSHOP. THE PRESENTATION WENT WELL. THE FDA REMAINS UNCHANGED.
I BUILD FORMAL ECONOMIC MODELS. THIS REQUIRES SPREADSHEETS, GREEK LETTERS, AND A BELIEF THAT HUMAN BEHAVIOR CAN BE CAPTURED IN EQUATIONS. I AM ACTIVELY LOOKING FOR CONTRIBUTORS TO REVIEW THESE MODELS. YOU CAN LEAVE COMMENTS INLINE DIRECTLY ON THE PAPERS.

6.65K DISEASES (95% CI: 5.70K DISEASES-8.24K DISEASES) DISEASES HAVE 0 FDA-APPROVED TREATMENTS. AT CURRENT TRIAL CAPACITY (15 DISEASES/YEAR (95% CI: 8 DISEASES/YEAR-30 DISEASES/YEAR) NEW FIRST TREATMENTS/YEAR), EXPLORING THE THERAPEUTIC SEARCH SPACE TAKES ~443 YEARS (95% CI: 324 YEARS-712 YEARS). REDIRECT 1% OF MILITARY SPENDING ($27.2B/YEAR) TO PRAGMATIC CLINICAL TRIALS. TRIAL CAPACITY JUMPS 12.3X (95% CI: 4.19X-61.3X). SEARCH SPACE EXPLORED IN ~36 YEARS (95% CI: 11.6 YEARS-77.2 YEARS) INSTEAD OF CENTURIES. AVERAGE TREATMENT REACHES PATIENTS 212 YEARS (95% CI: 135 YEARS-355 YEARS) SOONER. TIMELINE SHIFT SAVES 10.7B DEATHS (95% CI: 7.39B DEATHS-16.2B DEATHS), VALUED AT $84.8 QUADRILLION (95% CI: $62.4 QUADRILLION-$97.3 QUADRILLION). COST-EFFECTIVENESS: $0.0018 (95% CI: $0.0007-$0.0041)/DALY, 50.3KX (95% CI: 23.7KX-111.7KX) BETTER THAN BED NETS. EVEN AT 1% (95% CI: 0.1%-10%) PROBABILITY OF TREATY ADOPTION, RISK-ADJUSTED COST-EFFECTIVENESS REMAINS SUPERIOR TO THE BEST EXISTING GLOBAL HEALTH INTERVENTIONS. INCENTIVE ALIGNMENT BONDS ADDRESS POLITICAL FEASIBILITY BY TYING LEGISLATORS' CAREER INCENTIVES TO A PUBLIC VOTING SCORECARD.

GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS OPTIMIZED FOR LOBBYING INTENSITY, NOT NET SOCIETAL VALUE. PROGRAMS WITH 100:1 BENEFIT-COST RATIOS GET BILLIONS WHILE PROGRAMS WITH NEGATIVE RETURNS GET HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS. INCENTIVE ALIGNMENT BONDS FLIP THIS BY CREATING A CAPITAL POOL THAT REWARDS POLITICIANS (VIA CAMPAIGN SUPPORT AND POST-OFFICE OPPORTUNITIES) FOR FUNDING HIGH-NSV PROGRAMS OVER LOW-NSV ALTERNATIVES. THE RESULT: PUBLIC GOOD BECOMES PRIVATE PROFIT FOR BOTH INVESTORS AND ELECTED OFFICIALS.

REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY SUFFERS FROM AN INESCAPABLE PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM WHERE ELECTED OFFICIALS' INCENTIVES DIVERGE FROM CITIZEN WELFARE. WISHOCRACY INTRODUCES RAPPA (RANDOMIZED AGGREGATED PAIRWISE PREFERENCE ALLOCATION), WHICH AGGREGATES CITIZEN PREFERENCES THROUGH COGNITIVELY TRACTABLE PAIRWISE COMPARISONS AND CREATES ACCOUNTABILITY VIA CITIZEN ALIGNMENT SCORES THAT CHANNEL ELECTORAL RESOURCES TOWARD POLITICIANS WHO ACTUALLY REPRESENT WHAT CITIZENS WANT.

WHAT'S THE MAXIMUM COST TO ACHIEVE ANY POLICY CHANGE THROUGH LEGAL DEMOCRATIC CHANNELS? $25B FOR THE US, $200B GLOBALLY. FOR HIGH-VALUE REFORMS LIKE MILITARY-TO-HEALTH REALLOCATION, THIS YIELDS ROI EXCEEDING 400,000:1.

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF A DECENTRALIZED FRAMEWORK FOR DRUG ASSESSMENT (DFDA). WITH $21.8B/YEAR IN PRAGMATIC TRIAL FUNDING, THE FRAMEWORK COULD SAVE 10.7B DEATHS (95% CI: 7.39B DEATHS-16.2B DEATHS) AND AVERT 565B DALYS (95% CI: 361B DALYS-877B DALYS) AT $0.841 (95% CI: $0.242-$1.75) PER DALY, WHILE GENERATING $58.6B (95% CI: $49.2B-$73.1B) IN ANNUAL R&D SAVINGS.

A system optimized for saving lives rather than avoiding lawsuits. 50,000+ observational studies analyzed. Meta-analyses for 90%+ of condition-treatment pairs. Treatment rankings for 100+ conditions. The current FDA approval process takes 10+ years and costs $2.6B per drug. During that time, between 11,000 and 115,000 people die who could have been saved if the drug had been approved immediately. There are roughly 1.16 quadrillion possible drug combinations we haven't tested. At the current pace, we'll finish testing them all in approximately never. The dFDA could accelerate clinical discovery by 80X. Which, if my math is correct, means we could map the entire space of possible treatments in about 45 minutes.

Redirect 1% of global military spending to health research. Save 416 million lives. 700× more effective than current spending. I sent this proposal to everyone with the power to implement it. They have enthusiastically ignored me. When your last name is Sinn, you take validation wherever you can find it.

Data-driven policy analysis. Articles like 'The War on Drugs Increases Drug Deaths' and 'We Spend More on Corporate Welfare Than Social Welfare.' 2 million people read these. The policy remains exactly the same. But I made some really compelling charts and I stand by them.

A DAO focused on clinical research. That's a lot of technical jargon, so let me translate: imagine if Wikipedia and a clinical trial had a baby that was raised by blockchain. The result is a platform where anyone can contribute to medical research without needing permission from a committee of very tired people in lab coats.



Aggregated Pairwise Preference Allocation. If that sounds like something from an economics paper written at 3 AM after too much coffee, you are correct. It's a mechanism for democratic resource allocation. Whether anyone will ever use it remains unclear. But the math is elegant and that has to count for something.


The Plutonium Kidz were born of a secret government program involving the testing of plutonium exposure on human subjects. Through these experiments three normal children were thus transformed into the Plutonium Kidz! The government program, regrettably, remains classified.

I built a platform to analyze what affects human health. 14 million data points. Novel causal inference methodology. The entire thing is open source. Most people do not, in fact, want to know what affects their health. They want to eat chips and watch TV. Which is fair. I would also like to eat chips and watch TV. Instead I made this.