MIKE SINN

RESEARCH

UTILITARIANISM, PUBLIC POLICY, OPTIMIZING SOCIETAL RESOURCE ALLOCATION, THE EFFECTS OF FOODS AND DRUGS ON HUMAN HEALTH AND HAPPINESS, AND OCCASIONALLY WHY MY HOUSEPLANTS KEEP DYING DESPITE RIGOROUS DATA COLLECTION.

IT'S LIGHT READING.

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Decentralized Institutes of Health
How to End War and Disease

Decentralized Institutes of Health

MECHANISM DESIGN

A thin coordination protocol that makes doing the highest-ROI thing toward disease eradication the selfish choice for every actor.

A Decentralized Framework for Drug Assessment
How to End War and Disease

A Decentralized Framework for Drug Assessment

CLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

Increasing trial capacity 12.3x by giving all patients the right to effortlessly participate in global decentralized clinical trials at 80× lower cost

NIH Fails to Institute Health
How to End War and Disease

NIH Fails to Institute Health

CLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

The NIH spends only 3.3% on testing if drugs actually work in humans and almost nothing on highly efficient pragmatic trials. This misallocation costs ~100 million quality-adjusted life-years annually.

The FDA Is Unsafe and Ineffective
How to End War and Disease

The FDA Is Unsafe and Ineffective

CLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

How blocking patient access during 8+ years of efficacy testing made clinical trials 34x more expensive per patient while making drugs demonstrably more dangerous.

How Central Banks Fund Your Death
How to End War and Disease

How Central Banks Fund Your Death

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

The War Machine's ATM: How every fiat currency in history has been devalued to fund unpopular wars, and how to bypass the system.

A 1% Treaty
How to End War and Disease

A 1% Treaty

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

How to Redirect $27.2B from War to Medicine - The complete guide to a 1% treaty, the binding global accord that redirects $27.2B annually from military spending to curing disease while maintaining global security.

The Proof: Overview
How to End War and Disease

The Proof: Overview

CLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

This Already Works - Pragmatic trials prove 44.1x efficiency. History proves every component. Switzerland, war bonds, landmines, the 3.5% rule, and Wall Street's craziest bets all prove humans can accidentally do smart things when properly motivated.

The Roadmap to End War and Disease
How to End War and Disease

The Roadmap to End War and Disease

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Step-by-step instructions for bootstrapping a global revolution by bribing everyone into accidentally saving humanity while getting rich.

Why Every Nonprofit Should Support a 1% treaty
How to End War and Disease

Why Every Nonprofit Should Support a 1% treaty

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

The strategic case for nonprofit coalition-building around a 1% treaty - escaping zero-sum competition through resource reallocation.

Building Your AI Coordination Army
How to End War and Disease

Building Your AI Coordination Army

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

How to build and deploy autonomous AI agents that coordinate millions of people fighting the War on Disease.

Investor Risk Analysis
How to End War and Disease

Investor Risk Analysis

MECHANISM DESIGN

VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bonds vs. Traditional Venture Capital - Analysis of the unique risk profile of a 1% treaty initiative, comparing its political arbitrage model to the market-risk model of venture capital.

Real-World Evidence Historical Success (Pre-1962)
How to End War and Disease

Real-World Evidence Historical Success (Pre-1962)

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

How decentralized physician trials from 1883-1962 achieved 4 years/decade life expectancy gains, and what happened when the 1962 regulations replaced them with industry-controlled trials

The Cost of War
How to End War and Disease

The Cost of War

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Quantifying Human Idiocy - A precise accounting of what humans spend to destroy themselves, with numbers that would make a statistician weep.

The Cost of Disease
How to End War and Disease

The Cost of Disease

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

The annual bill for our collective decision to let our bodies fall apart. Spoiler alert, it's more than all the money on Earth.

Genetic Slavery
How to End War and Disease

Genetic Slavery

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

An exploration of how our genes use pain and pleasure to enslave us, forcing actions inconsistent with our rational ethics.

The Cautionary Tale of Moronia
How to End War and Disease

The Cautionary Tale of Moronia

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

How a civilization murdered itself with machines instead of eradicating diseases and transcending their biology

Global Referendum Strategy
How to End War and Disease

Global Referendum Strategy

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Comprehensive strategy for implementing a secure, globally verifiable referendum to demonstrate public support for a 1% treaty, including implementation, verification, and viral marketing approaches.

Financial Plan
How to End War and Disease

Financial Plan

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

High-level overview of how to fund, spend, and manage the financial flows required to pass a 1% treaty and operate the 1% Treaty Fund.

Wishocracy
How to End War and Disease

Wishocracy

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

How to allocate $27.2B and prevent it from getting stolen by parasitic lobbyists and special interests (as is the custom)

How to Not Build Most of It
How to End War and Disease

How to Not Build Most of It

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

A dFDA strategy for getting other people to build everything through open APIs and bounties, like WordPress but for not dying.

The Two Futures
How to End War and Disease

The Two Futures

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Two timelines diverge from this moment. One ends in extinction, the other in transcendence. The only difference is a 1% budget reallocation.

About This Book
How to End War and Disease

About This Book

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

The exact sequence of bribes needed to redirect 1% of military spending to curing disease, making everyone rich in the process.

VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bonds
How to End War and Disease

VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bonds

MECHANISM DESIGN

How to legally bribe politicians into saving lives, and how investors profit from it

Treaty Feasibility & Cost Analysis
How to End War and Disease

Treaty Feasibility & Cost Analysis

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Real-world evidence that getting a global treaty signed costs $90M, not billions

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations
How to End War and Disease

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Parameter definitions, formulas, uncertainty ranges, and data sources.

The Untapped Therapeutic Frontier
How to End War and Disease

The Untapped Therapeutic Frontier

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

You've explored less than 1% of medicine. The other 99% is where the cures are.

Campaign Budget: The $1B Legal Bribery Machine
How to End War and Disease

Campaign Budget: The $1B Legal Bribery Machine

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Problem Overview
How to End War and Disease

Problem Overview

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Humanity's spectacular failure at prioritizing not dying

Unrepresentative Democracy
How to End War and Disease

Unrepresentative Democracy

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Why democracy mathematically serves money over voters, and how to exploit that bug

Aligning Incentives
How to End War and Disease

Aligning Incentives

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

How to Make the Right Choice More Profitable Than the Wrong One

You Are a Meat Robot
How to End War and Disease

You Are a Meat Robot

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Aging, disease, and death are engineering problems with engineering solutions

Wishonia
How to End War and Disease

Wishonia

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

How My Planet Works and Why You Should Copy Our Homework

Frequently Asked Objections
How to End War and Disease

Frequently Asked Objections

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

For the Reasonably Skeptical

Legal Architecture
How to End War and Disease

Legal Architecture

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

How to Stay Out of Prison While Revolutionizing Global Healthcare

Recruitment & Propaganda Plan
How to End War and Disease

Recruitment & Propaganda Plan

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

How to build an army of people who don't want to die (surprisingly difficult)

Peace Dividend
How to End War and Disease

Peace Dividend

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

What happens when you build 1% fewer things that explode

Health Dividend
How to End War and Disease

Health Dividend

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

How a $40M framework generates $58.6B in annual savings through 80x cost reduction

Papers & Publications
How to End War and Disease

Papers & Publications

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Academic papers and working drafts from the Disease Eradication Plan project.

Solution Overview
How to End War and Disease

Solution Overview

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

How to Build Systems That Don't Suck

Election Law
How to End War and Disease

Election Law

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

How to Buy Politicians Legally

The Legislation Package
How to End War and Disease

The Legislation Package

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

How to Write Laws That Actually Pass

The Oxford RECOVERY Trial
How to End War and Disease

The Oxford RECOVERY Trial

CLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

Proof that decentralized pragmatic trials reduce costs by 82X while saving millions of lives

Copyright
How to End War and Disease

Copyright

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS
Decentralized Institutes of Health
War on Disease

Decentralized Institutes of Health

CLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

A global research initiative to accelerate medical progress through pragmatic clinical trials.

War on Disease

637:1 Return on Investment: The Economic Case for Clinical Trials

CLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

10.7B lives saved through earlier treatment access. $84.8 Quadrillion total value. Peer-reviewed research on accelerating medical progress.

Ubiquitous Pragmatic Trial Impact Analysis: How to Prevent a Year of Death and Suffering for 84 Cents
How to Prevent a Year of Death and Suffering for 84 Cents

Ubiquitous Pragmatic Trial Impact Analysis: How to Prevent a Year of Death and Suffering for 84 Cents

CLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

Only 15 diseases/year (95% CI: 8 diseases/year-30 diseases/year) get their first treatment each year. With 6.65 thousand diseases (95% CI: 5.70 thousand diseases-8.24 thousand diseases) lacking effective treatments, the backlog would take 443 years (95% CI: 324 years-712 years) to clear. Integrating pragmatic trials into standard healthcare increases trial capacity 12.3x (95% CI: 4.2x-61.4x), cutting that timeline from 443 years (95% CI: 324 years-712 years) to 36 years (95% CI: 11.6 years-77.1 years). The average untreated disease gets a treatment 212 years (95% CI: 135 years-355 years) earlier, saving 10.7 billion deaths (95% CI: 7.40 billion deaths-16.2 billion deaths) at $0.842 (95% CI: $0.242-$1.75) per year of healthy life saved.

Is This Crazy? – Ubiquitous Pragmatic Trial Impact Analysis: How to Prevent a Year of Death and Suffering for 84 Cents
How to Prevent a Year of Death and Suffering for 84 Cents

Is This Crazy? – Ubiquitous Pragmatic Trial Impact Analysis: How to Prevent a Year of Death and Suffering for 84 Cents

CLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

Integrating pragmatic trials into routine healthcare claims to clear a 443 years (95% CI: 324 years-712 years) treatment backlog at $0.842 (95% CI: $0.242-$1.75)/DALY. One-page calculation chain for economist review.

Is This Crazy?
Ubiquitous Pragmatic Trial Impact Analysis: How to Prevent a Year of Death and Suffering for 84 Cents

Is This Crazy?

CLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

Integrating pragmatic trials into routine healthcare claims to clear a 443 years treatment backlog at $0.842/DALY. One-page calculation chain for economist review.

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations
Ubiquitous Pragmatic Trial Impact Analysis: How to Prevent a Year of Death and Suffering for 84 Cents

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Parameter definitions, formulas, uncertainty ranges, and data sources.

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations – Ubiquitous Pragmatic Trial Impact Analysis: How to Prevent a Year of Death and Suffering for 84 Cents
How to Prevent a Year of Death and Suffering for 84 Cents

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations – Ubiquitous Pragmatic Trial Impact Analysis: How to Prevent a Year of Death and Suffering for 84 Cents

CLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

Parameter definitions, formulas, uncertainty ranges, and data sources.

Think by Numbers
Think by Numbers

Think by Numbers

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Evidence-based analysis of government spending, healthcare policy, and rational decision-making. A better world through math.

Keynsian Creationism and Intelligently Design Economies
Think by Numbers

Keynsian Creationism and Intelligently Design Economies

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Keynesians believe Federal Reserve designs economic order from chaos like creationists believe in intelligent design. Both can't grasp complex adaptive systems. Evolution and markets don't need planners.

It Takes 3.5% of the Population to Change the World
Think by Numbers

It Takes 3.5% of the Population to Change the World

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Harvard study shows 3.5% active participation changes society. Not clicking "like." Actual showing up. Your government publishes the percentage needed.

FDA Fails to Apply Basic Rational Cost-Benefit Analysis to Regulatory Decisions
Think by Numbers

FDA Fails to Apply Basic Rational Cost-Benefit Analysis to Regulatory Decisions

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

FDA banned monoclonal antibodies despite 30% efficacy. They ignored $3.7T Long COVID cost, risked $600M in preventable hospitalizations.

Voter Support for a Bill Has Near Zero Influence on Whether It Will Become Law
Think by Numbers

Voter Support for a Bill Has Near Zero Influence on Whether It Will Become Law

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Princeton study shows 90% of Americans have zero impact on legislation. 0% or 100% support both equal 30% passage chance. Democracy is flat line.

IRS Automation Could Save Americans $191 Billion
Think by Numbers

IRS Automation Could Save Americans $191 Billion

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

IRS already has your data; automating returns could save $191 billion. Instead, they make you spend 13 hours transcribing what they know and threaten prison if you miscalculate.

Bottled Water Costs 40x More: Why Don't Poor Areas Have Water Plants?
Think by Numbers

Bottled Water Costs 40x More: Why Don't Poor Areas Have Water Plants?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Roatan residents spend $740/year on bottled water. Building a water plant costs 40x less over 25 years. The math is third-grade arithmetic. Like using a helicopter to commute one block.

War Costs the Average Person $74,259 Over Their Lifetime
Think by Numbers

War Costs the Average Person $74,259 Over Their Lifetime

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

War costs you $74,259 in lifetime taxes. That's a car's worth of money spent on bombs instead of things that don't explode people.

The Solution to Every Problem in the World
Think by Numbers

The Solution to Every Problem in the World

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

1 in 20 million terrorism death chance. 1 in 10 Alzheimer's chance. We spend 162x more on military than brain research. Math is wrong.

Only 0.000000002% of Potential Treatments Have Been Studied
Think by Numbers

Only 0.000000002% of Potential Treatments Have Been Studied

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Only 21,000 of 1.162 quadrillion possible drug combinations tested. Would take 3.2 billion years at current pace. Earth is 4.5 billion years old.

How many NET lives are saved by efficacy trials?
Think by Numbers

How many NET lives are saved by efficacy trials?

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

FDA regulations killed medical progress by 70% in 1962. Lifespan growth immediately cut in half. Drug development now costs 13 times more.

How The Federal Reserve Steals from the Poor and Gives to the Rich
Think by Numbers

How The Federal Reserve Steals from the Poor and Gives to the Rich

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Before 1971 productivity and wages grew together. After 1971 they suddenly split. Productivity kept rising, wages flatlined. Federal Reserve counterfeiting is Robin Hood in reverse.

How to Protect Yourself Against the Invisible Inflation Burglar
Think by Numbers

How to Protect Yourself Against the Invisible Inflation Burglar

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Monetary inflation (money supply) vs price inflation (CPI). Money supply exploded, prices stayed stable. Inflation is hidden flat tax governments use instead of asking citizens to pay.

Zombie Companies Will Lead to America's Lost Decade
Think by Numbers

Zombie Companies Will Lead to America's Lost Decade

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Fed loans 0% interest to zombie companies that don't produce value. Japan's approach gave them 3 decades to recover. Volcker's alternative (1979) crashed then boomed.

Military-Industrial Complex Funnels Wealth to 4 Counties
Think by Numbers

Military-Industrial Complex Funnels Wealth to 4 Counties

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

America's 4 richest counties all surround the Pentagon. Defense contractors discovered money can't travel far from where it's printed.

Top 1% Received all of the $4 Trillion Printed in 2020
Think by Numbers

Top 1% Received all of the $4 Trillion Printed in 2020

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Federal Reserve printed $4 trillion in 2020. Top 1% wealth increased by exactly $4 trillion that year. St. Louis Fed confirms. The math matches perfectly. Totally normal economic policy.

Subconscious Processes 27,500 Times More Data than the Conscious Mind
Think by Numbers

Subconscious Processes 27,500 Times More Data than the Conscious Mind

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Your subconscious processes 27,500x more information than you're aware of. You're just the guy who takes credit.

The Majority of Americans Didn't Support the American Revolution
Think by Numbers

The Majority of Americans Didn't Support the American Revolution

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Only 33-45% supported American Revolution. 16% backed the king. Half tried avoiding it. America founded by minority opinion that made everyone 52X richer.

Democracy Gonna Make You Rich, Bitch!
Think by Numbers

Democracy Gonna Make You Rich, Bitch!

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Democracy increases GDP 20% over 30 years. Only get-rich-quick scheme that works. Like compound interest except voting rights make money somehow.

Most Voters Believe Their Own Party Will Win
Think by Numbers

Most Voters Believe Their Own Party Will Win

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

87% of Democrats and 62% of Republicans both predicted they'd win same election. Math doesn't work. Brain lies to you wearing statistics costume.

How much does it cost to develop a drug?
Think by Numbers

How much does it cost to develop a drug?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Median drug development cost is $985 million including failed trials (2009-2018). In 1893 doctors just tested drugs and reported results. Now we have a Valley of Death instead.

When the government prints new money, who gets it?
Think by Numbers

When the government prints new money, who gets it?

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Federal Reserve creates money electronically, buys bonds from investors. Bondholders get free money first. By the time it reaches you, inflation already ate it. Money printer go brr.

Depression  Rates Correlate Highly with Changes in Diet and Autoimmune Disease
Think by Numbers

Depression Rates Correlate Highly with Changes in Diet and Autoimmune Disease

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

US suicide rate jumped 40% as vegetable oil went up and actual vegetables dropped 10%. Inflammation steals tryptophan needed to make serotonin.

Is it morally optimal to rescue a cat from the pound?
Think by Numbers

Is it morally optimal to rescue a cat from the pound?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Saving one cat kills 600 chickens over 15 years. Utilitarianism proves petting your cat is morally worse than euthanizing it.

How to Identify the Bottom of a Stock Market Correction
Think by Numbers

How to Identify the Bottom of a Stock Market Correction

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Stock prices follow profits until positive feedback loops create bubbles. More buyers raise prices, higher prices attract more buyers. Then the music stops and someone's holding the bag.

Long-Term Trends in Human Well-Being
Think by Numbers

Long-Term Trends in Human Well-Being

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

For 10,000 years life expectancy was 28 and GDP was $100. Around 1800 both went vertical. Humanity spent 10,000 years in tutorial mode then someone pressed start.

We Have Enough Nuclear Bombs to Kill EVERYONE 130 Times
Think by Numbers

We Have Enough Nuclear Bombs to Kill EVERYONE 130 Times

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

15,000 nuclear weapons can kill everyone 2.6 times. After the first death, you're just showing off with expensive redundancy.

Free Advanced Interpretation of Your 23andMe Raw Data
Think by Numbers

Free Advanced Interpretation of Your 23andMe Raw Data

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

FDA restricted what 23andMe tells you about your DNA. Takes doctors 17 years to use new genetic research. Free tools interpret your data now.

US Stock Market Grew 3 Times Faster Under Obama Than Trump
Think by Numbers

US Stock Market Grew 3 Times Faster Under Obama Than Trump

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

First two years Trump stocks up 21%. First two years Obama stocks up 71.2%. That's 3.4x faster. Trump's gain is just 50-year average. Like getting a participation trophy for existing.

What is the cause of the opioid crisis?
Think by Numbers

What is the cause of the opioid crisis?

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Opioid deaths increased 1,000% while meth deaths rose 5,105% and cocaine 670%. Government blames drugs, ignores untreated mental illness epidemic.

Has political power become more decentralized over time?
Think by Numbers

Has political power become more decentralized over time?

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Democracies doubled, autocracies halved in 60 years. Progress measured by fewer countries where one person decides if you die. Bar is underground.

How much money is there in the world?
Think by Numbers

How much money is there in the world?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

World GDP is $127.8 trillion divided by 7.3 billion people equals $17,500 per person. Money is collective hallucination. Before money we traded chickens for cows. Much more efficient now.

What percent of economists support protectionist tariffs?
Think by Numbers

What percent of economists support protectionist tariffs?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Reuters polled 60 economists about steel tariffs. 0% supported them. Zero as in number before one. Like asking 60 doctors if you should eat broken glass and getting zero yes votes.

How much do we spend on the military?
Think by Numbers

How much do we spend on the military?

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

US military spending 1914-2007. Countries spend trillions preparing to kill each other, then kill each other, then prepare again. Beautiful cycle.

How many people have Alzheimer's disease?
Think by Numbers

How many people have Alzheimer's disease?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

44 million people worldwide have Alzheimer's. NIH spends $327 per victim while Americans spend $1,200 per person on alcohol to forget things temporarily.

How many Americans are killed by terrorists?
Think by Numbers

How many Americans are killed by terrorists?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

3,222 Americans killed by terrorists vs $1.1 trillion spent—$1.1 billion per victim. Yet we call this counterterrorism.

Prioritize Your To-Do List By Converting To Present Value
Think by Numbers

Prioritize Your To-Do List By Converting To Present Value

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Convert time savings to present value using 10% discount rate. Your commute is worth $8k today, which helps decide if moving beats Netflix.

Fecal Transplant Reduces Autism Symptoms 45%
Think by Numbers

Fecal Transplant Reduces Autism Symptoms 45%

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Poop transplants reduced autism symptoms 45% by fixing gut bacteria. Turns out moving microbes between intestines works better than most treatments.

Americans Spend More on Weight Loss Products Than It Would Take to End World Hunger
Think by Numbers

Americans Spend More on Weight Loss Products Than It Would Take to End World Hunger

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Americans spend $60 billion on weight loss while ending world hunger costs $30 billion. One group pays to subtract calories, the other needs calories.

You're 14 Times More Likely To Die of Cancer Than From an Opioid Overdose
Think by Numbers

You're 14 Times More Likely To Die of Cancer Than From an Opioid Overdose

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Cancer kills 14 times more people than opioids (1 in 7 vs 1 in 96). Media covers opioids wall-to-wall. Cancer gets a 5K run with matching shirts.

Less REM Sleep Linked to Dementia
Think by Numbers

Less REM Sleep Linked to Dementia

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Every 1% reduction in REM sleep increases dementia risk 9%. Brain has self-cleaning mode that requires sleep. You ignore it and drink coffee instead.

How much does the average American pay in Taxes?
Think by Numbers

How much does the average American pay in Taxes?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Average American household pays $10,489 in personal taxes yearly (14% of income). Federal budget is $4.4 trillion divided by 328 million people equals $13,403 spent per person. Math gets weird.

How much does the government spend per person?
Think by Numbers

How much does the government spend per person?

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Government spends $65,337 per voter annually. You could buy a car or pay student loans. Instead government bought fighter jets for you.

How much does the US spend on the military compared to the rest of the world?
Think by Numbers

How much does the US spend on the military compared to the rest of the world?

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

US spends 37% of global military budget with 4.4% of world population. $600 billion on weapons. Switzerland makes chocolate instead.

Anti-Terrorism Spending 50,000 Times More Than on Any Other Cause of Death
Think by Numbers

Anti-Terrorism Spending 50,000 Times More Than on Any Other Cause of Death

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

$500 million per terrorism death vs $2,000 per stroke death. You're 3x more likely to be struck by lightning than killed by terrorists.

Iran US Foreign Relations: A History of Violence
Think by Numbers

Iran US Foreign Relations: A History of Violence

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

0 Americans killed by Iran vs 290+ shot down in civilian airliner. US overthrew Iran's democracy in 1953 for oil.

Financial Sector Costs Us More than Any Other Sector In Economy
Think by Numbers

Financial Sector Costs Us More than Any Other Sector In Economy

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Finance jumped from 4% of GDP (1960s) to 8% (2007), costing $2 trillion annually—more than healthcare, construction, food combined. It's computer money-shuffling.

There's a 0.00001% Chance that Your Vote Will Matter
Think by Numbers

There's a 0.00001% Chance that Your Vote Will Matter

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Your vote has 0.00001% chance of mattering. Car accident driving to polls has 0.002% chance. You're 200X more likely to get injured than change outcome.

How Much Direct Suffering Is Caused by Various Animal Foods?
Think by Numbers

How Much Direct Suffering Is Caused by Various Animal Foods?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Farmed catfish causes 20,000 times more suffering than milk per kg. The math is third grade, but your dinner choices remain catastrophic.

Crowdsourcing Utopia: Solve All the World's Problems in 3 Easy Steps
Think by Numbers

Crowdsourcing Utopia: Solve All the World's Problems in 3 Easy Steps

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Governments spend $1 trillion on terrorism (kills fewer than lightning) while children starve. Third-grade math could fix this.

Governments Spend $1.8 Trillion Murdering Us and Destroying Our Property Annually
Think by Numbers

Governments Spend $1.8 Trillion Murdering Us and Destroying Our Property Annually

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

$1.8 trillion global military spending vs $100 million brain research. Chart required 17,000 pixels high to show military spending properly.

$1.5 Trillion Has Been Wasted on a Drug War that Hasn't Even Reduced Drug Use
Think by Numbers

$1.5 Trillion Has Been Wasted on a Drug War that Hasn't Even Reduced Drug Use

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

$1.5 trillion spent on drug war enforcement with zero change in addiction rates. Like paying someone $10 billion yearly to not do their job.

$2.3 Trillion Missing from Pentagon
Think by Numbers

$2.3 Trillion Missing from Pentagon

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Pentagon lost $2.3 trillion announced Sept 10, 2001. Next day planes hit towers. Perfect timing for forgetting about military waste.

How To Calculate Morality Using The Utilitarian Calculator
Think by Numbers

How To Calculate Morality Using The Utilitarian Calculator

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Bentham's felicific calculus quantifies pleasure and pain on a 1-10 scale. Yes, you can mathematically calculate whether you should kill your cat.

Algonomy: A Framework for Dealing with Suffering
Think by Numbers

Algonomy: A Framework for Dealing with Suffering

MECHANISM DESIGN

47 fields study suffering but none study suffering itself. It's like having Flame, Smoke, and Heat departments but nobody puts out fires.

The Encyclopedia of World Problems and Human Potential
Think by Numbers

The Encyclopedia of World Problems and Human Potential

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

50,000 organizations solve poverty using different definitions. Database maps how fixing one problem creates three new ones. It's free.

How to Overcome Bias in Crowdsourcing Participants
Think by Numbers

How to Overcome Bias in Crowdsourcing Participants

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Your vote has same odds as winning lottery 7 times. CAPTCHA for stupidity filters crowdsourcing bias by removing people who guess wrong.

From the Bankers Who Brought You President Obama Comes NEW PRESIDENT™!
Think by Numbers

From the Bankers Who Brought You President Obama Comes NEW PRESIDENT™!

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Obama budget $3.80 trillion vs Romney $3.79 trillion. 0.26% difference. Same banks fund both. Democracy is working perfectly wrong.

World Press (and Pothi) Freedom Index
Think by Numbers

World Press (and Pothi) Freedom Index

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Only 1 of 180 countries has press freedom like 1st Amendment. North Korea, Eritrea, Turkmenistan are information black holes.

Get Society Rich Quick: The Ideal Level of Government Spending
Think by Numbers

Get Society Rich Quick: The Ideal Level of Government Spending

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Government spending above 25% of GDP slows economic growth. OECD countries prove it. Every dollar above 25% is basically lighting money on fire and calling it policy.

Foreign Military Occupation is the Primary Cause of Terrorism
Think by Numbers

Foreign Military Occupation is the Primary Cause of Terrorism

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

95% of suicide terrorism targets occupying militaries. We invaded to stop terrorism, making terrorism increase 89% instead.

Meet the Backers: Bankers Flip-Flop to Romney
Think by Numbers

Meet the Backers: Bankers Flip-Flop to Romney

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Banks needed $125 billion TARP bailout. Same banks gave $1 million each to Obama 2008 and Romney 2012. Both candidates support bailouts.

Are most Muslims terrorists? Are most terrorists Muslim?
Think by Numbers

Are most Muslims terrorists? Are most terrorists Muslim?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

42% of suicide attacks (1981-2000) by non-Muslims. Top terrorist group was Hindu Marxists, so the confusion requires third-grade math.

GOP Presidential Candidates' Budget Plans EXPOSED!!!
Think by Numbers

GOP Presidential Candidates' Budget Plans EXPOSED!!!

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Ron Paul proposed $1 trillion cuts. Romney, Gingrich, Cain only $20 billion each. Real inflation 10% not 3.5%. Hidden tax hits hardest.

Fraudulent Defense Contractors Paid $1 Trillion
Think by Numbers

Fraudulent Defense Contractors Paid $1 Trillion

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Pentagon paid $1.1 trillion to convicted fraudulent defense contractors over 10 years, then gave them raises for stealing from taxpayers.

Unrepresentative Democracy – Government by the Millionaires and for the Millionaires
Think by Numbers

Unrepresentative Democracy – Government by the Millionaires and for the Millionaires

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Half of Congress are millionaires vs 1% of population. When representatives are 50X wealthier than you, they represent millionaires. Shocking discovery.

How the US Monetary System Steals from the Poor and Gives to the Rich
Think by Numbers

How the US Monetary System Steals from the Poor and Gives to the Rich

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Banking system mechanism transfers wealth from those at bottom to those at top through inflation and fiat money creation. Watch how the con works in this explainer.

Housing Bubble Wastes $2 Trillion on 14 Million Empty Houses
Think by Numbers

Housing Bubble Wastes $2 Trillion on 14 Million Empty Houses

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Americans built 14 million empty houses costing $2 trillion because the Fed made borrowing artificially cheap. The government's success destroyed wealth on a massive scale.

A More Progressive Tax System Makes People Happier
Think by Numbers

A More Progressive Tax System Makes People Happier

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Study of 59,634 people in 54 countries proves progressive taxes make people happier—they report better life satisfaction and respect than flat-tax countries.

Voters See 'Corporate Welfare' Programs As A Good Place To Cut Government Spending
Think by Numbers

Voters See 'Corporate Welfare' Programs As A Good Place To Cut Government Spending

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

70% oppose weapons subsidies, 46% oppose farm subsidies. Government does it anyway. Democracy works perfectly if you order cinder blocks not pizza.

Government Pays Doctors $44,000 to Use an iPad
Think by Numbers

Government Pays Doctors $44,000 to Use an iPad

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Government gave doctors earning $200k up to $44k for iPads costing $500. Took taxes from staff making $25/hour who then lost jobs to the technology.

Government Spends More on Corporate Welfare Subsidies than Social Welfare Programs
Think by Numbers

Government Spends More on Corporate Welfare Subsidies than Social Welfare Programs

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

US spends $92 billion on corporate welfare vs $59 billion on food stamps. CEOs need help buying medium-sized yachts apparently.

Debt Will Swell Under Top GOP Hopefuls' Tax Plans
Think by Numbers

Debt Will Swell Under Top GOP Hopefuls' Tax Plans

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Gingrich's plan adds $7 trillion to debt while calling himself fiscal conservative—like buying a Ferrari on credit card and negotiating the interest rate.

What Would Have Happened If We Let AIG Fail?
Think by Numbers

What Would Have Happened If We Let AIG Fail?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

AIG bailout cost $2,000 per household. Goldman gave Obama $43 million, got billions back. Like ordering bottle service except you weren't at club.

Bailout Costs $16,000 per Worker
Think by Numbers

Bailout Costs $16,000 per Worker

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Fed printed $6 trillion for bank bailouts. Stock prices soared, rich got richer, poor can't afford houses. Inflation only 1.5% though.

Obama to cut deficit in half... After quadrupling it.
Think by Numbers

Obama to cut deficit in half... After quadrupling it.

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Obama quadrupled deficit to $2 trillion, then cut to $533 billion. Media called it fiscal responsibility. Like setting house on fire then putting out half.

The Future of US Government Debt
Think by Numbers

The Future of US Government Debt

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Debt projected to reach 350% of GDP by 2080 if policies continue unchanged. It's not a prediction; it's a math problem with one solution: something breaks.

Historical Examples Show Government Intervention Only Prolongs Economic Downturns
Think by Numbers

Historical Examples Show Government Intervention Only Prolongs Economic Downturns

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Chile recovered from 1982 crisis in 2.5 years without bailouts. Mexico took 7 years with intervention. Government stimulus is like using a flamethrower to put out a fire.

There's about a 0.1% Chance that COVID-19 Coincidentally Arose in Nature near the Wuhan Institute of Virology
Think by Numbers

There's about a 0.1% Chance that COVID-19 Coincidentally Arose in Nature near the Wuhan Institute of Virology

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

0.1% chance novel coronavirus appeared near the only 5 labs studying this exact virus. Basic math meets uncomfortable facts.

A World Run By Economists
Think by Numbers

A World Run By Economists

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Every Econ 101 textbook teaches incentives, costs, and second-order effects. Most government policies ignore all three. Like someone passing driver's ed then driving into a lake on purpose.

USPS Has Received Over $45 Billion from Taxpayers to Reduce the Cost of Junk Mail, Killing Billions of Trees
Think by Numbers

USPS Has Received Over $45 Billion from Taxpayers to Reduce the Cost of Junk Mail, Killing Billions of Trees

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

USPS junk mail 65% discount kills 100 million trees annually. You pay $126/year so credit card offers arrive faster. Beautiful circle of life.

Why Think by Numbers?
Think by Numbers

Why Think by Numbers?

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

70% of voters don't know how much government spends on anything. Your lizard brain beats your rational cortex 206 times per day.

I Am Biased
Think by Numbers

I Am Biased

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Humans invented both antibiotics and weapons to prevent antibiotics from working. Using statistics to decide who dies is radical.

The Empiricist Movement
Think by Numbers

The Empiricist Movement

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Looking at evidence is considered a radical political position by half the planet. Organizations trying rational thinking anyway.

Vote!
Think by Numbers

Vote!

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

You're 200x more likely to get injured driving to vote than to affect the election outcome. Democracy is irrational but do it anyway.

GDP and You!
Think by Numbers

GDP and You!

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

World GDP is $127.8 trillion divided by 7.3 billion people equals $17,500 each. Happiness maxes out at $75k income. Above that you're just buying stuff, not joy. Economics with spreadsheets.

A Utilitarian Party Platform
Think by Numbers

A Utilitarian Party Platform

TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION

Political platform asks "what if you tried helping people instead of signaling tribal affiliation?" Uses third-grade math. Revolutionary, apparently.

Wealth Inequality in America
Think by Numbers

Wealth Inequality in America

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Americans underestimate wealth inequality so badly the perception gap exceeds the actual wealth gap—like thinking your neighbor has 2 cars when they own a dealership.

Drink by Numbers!
Think by Numbers

Drink by Numbers!

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Gas chromatography proves Budweiser isn't watered down. Day drinking becomes "data collection" with scientific equipment involved.

The Hedonistic Imperative
Think by Numbers

The Hedonistic Imperative

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Military gets $2 trillion, brain research gets $13 billion. We spend 154x more on bombs than abolishing all suffering forever.

The Wisdom of Crowds
Think by Numbers

The Wisdom of Crowds

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Random farmers guessed an ox's weight within 1 pound. Experts were wrong. Crowds beat geniuses when math says they shouldn't.

cos(b) says,
Think by Numbers

cos(b) says,

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

cos(b) can't be both square and a trigonometric function. Cosby's geometry fails in three dimensions, possibly four.

Fun Facts About Iraq
Think by Numbers

Fun Facts About Iraq

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Iraq War cost $3 trillion, enough to end world hunger for 100 years. We chose to make 4 million Iraqis homeless instead.

How much of our DNA is useless junk?
Think by Numbers

How much of our DNA is useless junk?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

75% of your DNA is junk that cells photocopy billions of times for absolutely no reason.

What was the population when the United States was established?
Think by Numbers

What was the population when the United States was established?

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

2.5 million people created a democracy. You have 335 million who can't agree on anything.

How much time do people spend consuming news?
Think by Numbers

How much time do people spend consuming news?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Americans spend 70 minutes daily consuming news about problems in places they'll never visit.

Every World Statistic You Could Ever Dream Of (In Real Time)!
Think by Numbers

Every World Statistic You Could Ever Dream Of (In Real Time)!

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Watch humanity's vital signs live. See military spending outpace disease research in real time.

Are You Reading this of Your Own Free Will?
Think by Numbers

Are You Reading this of Your Own Free Will?

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Your brain decided 10 seconds before you did. Brain scans prove you're not actually making choices.

QuantiModo
QuantiModo

QuantiModo

CLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

Automating clinical research through the open-source dFDA ecosystem. Accelerating the discovery of treatments for 7,000+ diseases through automated data collection, causal inference analysis, and effortless clinical trials. We want everyone to have their own personalized agentic FDAi agent to autonomously discover the positive and negative effects of every food and drug in the world!

The Empirical Deficit that Plagues Modern Psychiatry
QuantiModo

The Empirical Deficit that Plagues Modern Psychiatry

TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION

Why psychiatry needs more data: comparing the rigorous quantitative methods used in industrial testing to the subjective approaches in mental health treatment.

9 Barriers to the Eradication of Mental Illness and How We Can Overcome Them
QuantiModo

9 Barriers to the Eradication of Mental Illness and How We Can Overcome Them

TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION

9 key barriers to ending mental illness: high treatment costs, lack of research funding, stigma, and more. Learn how data-driven approaches can help solve these challenges.

HIGHER Omega 3 Fatty Acid Intake Predicts LOWER Inflammatory Pain
QuantiModo

HIGHER Omega 3 Fatty Acid Intake Predicts LOWER Inflammatory Pain

OBSERVATIONAL CLINICAL RESEARCH

N=1 study showing higher Omega-3 fatty acid intake predicts lower inflammatory pain (R=-0.504, p<0.001). Fish oil supplementation correlated with reduced inflammation.

HIGHER Gluten Free Pasta with Olive Oil predicts HIGHER Overall Mood
QuantiModo

HIGHER Gluten Free Pasta with Olive Oil predicts HIGHER Overall Mood

OBSERVATIONAL CLINICAL RESEARCH

N=1 study showing gluten-free pasta with olive oil predicts higher overall mood (R=0.5, p<0.001). Gluten-free diet correlated with improved emotional wellbeing.

HIGHER Overall Mood predicts LOWER Inflammatory Pain
QuantiModo

HIGHER Overall Mood predicts LOWER Inflammatory Pain

OBSERVATIONAL CLINICAL RESEARCH

N=1 study showing higher overall mood predicts lower inflammatory pain (R=-0.343, p=0.001). Inflammatory pain was 13% higher after low mood (3.54/5) vs 9% lower after high mood (4.14/5).

Analytics Engine
QuantiModo

Analytics Engine

OBSERVATIONAL CLINICAL RESEARCH

QuantiModo Analytics Engine: Machine learning algorithms that analyze health data to discover correlations between treatments, behaviors, and outcomes.

Instantly Aggregate Your Users' Data
QuantiModo

Instantly Aggregate Your Users' Data

TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION

Integration is easy with the framework's libraries in Ruby, PHP, Java, Android, iOS, and Windows.

Revolutionizing Social-Science Experimentation
QuantiModo

Revolutionizing Social-Science Experimentation

TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION

Design your experiment. Run your experiment. Analyze your data. All in one place.

Is This Crazy?
The 1% Treaty: Harnessing Greed to Eradicate Disease

Is This Crazy?

CLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

A 1% redirect of military spending to pragmatic trials claims to avert 565 billion DALYs at $0.0018 each. One-page calculation chain for economist review.

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations
The 1% Treaty: Harnessing Greed to Eradicate Disease

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Parameter definitions, formulas, uncertainty ranges, and data sources.

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations
The Price of Political Change: A Cost-Benefit Framework for Policy Incentivization

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Parameter definitions, formulas, uncertainty ranges, and data sources.

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations
The Continuous Evidence Generation Protocol: Two-Stage Validation (RWE → Pragmatic Trials)

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Parameter definitions, formulas, uncertainty ranges, and data sources.

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations
Incentive Alignment Bonds: Making Public Goods Financially and Politically Profitable

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Parameter definitions, formulas, uncertainty ranges, and data sources.

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations
The Invisible Graveyard: Quantifying the Mortality Cost of FDA Efficacy Lag

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Parameter definitions, formulas, uncertainty ranges, and data sources.

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations
The Optimal Budget Generator: A Causal Inference Protocol for Maximizing Median Health and Wealth Through Public Goods Funding

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Parameter definitions, formulas, uncertainty ranges, and data sources.

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations
Optimocracy: Causal Inference on Cross-Jurisdictional Policy Data to Maximize Median Health and Wealth

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Parameter definitions, formulas, uncertainty ranges, and data sources.

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations
Right to Trial & FDA Upgrade Act

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Parameter definitions, formulas, uncertainty ranges, and data sources.

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations
United States Efficiency Audit

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Parameter definitions, formulas, uncertainty ranges, and data sources.

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations
Wishocracy: Solving the Democratic Principal-Agent Problem Through Pairwise Preference Aggregation

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Parameter definitions, formulas, uncertainty ranges, and data sources.

Drug Development Cost Increase Analysis

Methodology, Parameters, and Calculations

PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Parameter definitions, formulas, uncertainty ranges, and data sources.

Wishonia
Wishonia

Wishonia

TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION

Using collective intelligence to maximize median health and happiness.

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