MIKE SINN

I'm not sure if you've noticed, but:

You and everyone you've ever loved are slowly dissolving.

The equivalent of 9 holocausts worth of people die every year from curable diseases.

All the while, humanity spends 40X more on building Skynet and enough nuclear bombs to kill everyone at least 20 times.

Below are an assortment of crazy ideas to try to address this.

WORKING PAPERS

PEER-REVIEWED BY EXACTLY ZERO PEERS. CITED BY FEWER. STILL MATHEMATICALLY CORRECT.

THE 1% TREATY: HARNESSING GREED TO ERADICATE DISEASE

THE 1% TREATY: HARNESSING GREED TO ERADICATE DISEASE

6.65K DISEASES (95% CI: 5.70K DISEASES-8.24K DISEASES) DISEASES HAVE 0 FDA-APPROVED TREATMENTS. AT CURRENT TRIAL CAPACITY (15 DISEASES/YEAR (95% CI: 8 DISEASES/YEAR-30 DISEASES/YEAR) NEW FIRST TREATMENTS/YEAR), EXPLORING THE THERAPEUTIC SEARCH SPACE TAKES ~443 YEARS (95% CI: 324 YEARS-712 YEARS). REDIRECT 1% OF MILITARY SPENDING ($27.2B/YEAR) TO PRAGMATIC CLINICAL TRIALS. TRIAL CAPACITY JUMPS 12.3X (95% CI: 4.19X-61.3X). SEARCH SPACE EXPLORED IN ~36 YEARS (95% CI: 11.6 YEARS-77.2 YEARS) INSTEAD OF CENTURIES. AVERAGE TREATMENT REACHES PATIENTS 212 YEARS (95% CI: 135 YEARS-355 YEARS) SOONER. TIMELINE SHIFT SAVES 10.7B DEATHS (95% CI: 7.39B DEATHS-16.2B DEATHS), VALUED AT $84.8 QUADRILLION (95% CI: $62.4 QUADRILLION-$97.3 QUADRILLION). COST-EFFECTIVENESS: $0.0018 (95% CI: $0.0007-$0.0041)/DALY, 50.3KX (95% CI: 23.7KX-111.7KX) BETTER THAN BED NETS. EVEN AT 1% (95% CI: 0.1%-10%) PROBABILITY OF TREATY ADOPTION, RISK-ADJUSTED COST-EFFECTIVENESS REMAINS SUPERIOR TO THE BEST EXISTING GLOBAL HEALTH INTERVENTIONS. INCENTIVE ALIGNMENT BONDS ADDRESS POLITICAL FEASIBILITY BY TYING LEGISLATORS' CAREER INCENTIVES TO A PUBLIC VOTING SCORECARD.

INCENTIVE ALIGNMENT BONDS: MAKING PUBLIC GOODS FINANCIALLY AND POLITICALLY PROFITABLE

INCENTIVE ALIGNMENT BONDS: MAKING PUBLIC GOODS FINANCIALLY AND POLITICALLY PROFITABLE

GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS OPTIMIZED FOR LOBBYING INTENSITY, NOT NET SOCIETAL VALUE. PROGRAMS WITH 100:1 BENEFIT-COST RATIOS GET BILLIONS WHILE PROGRAMS WITH NEGATIVE RETURNS GET HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS. INCENTIVE ALIGNMENT BONDS FLIP THIS BY CREATING A CAPITAL POOL THAT REWARDS POLITICIANS (VIA CAMPAIGN SUPPORT AND POST-OFFICE OPPORTUNITIES) FOR FUNDING HIGH-NSV PROGRAMS OVER LOW-NSV ALTERNATIVES. THE RESULT: PUBLIC GOOD BECOMES PRIVATE PROFIT FOR BOTH INVESTORS AND ELECTED OFFICIALS.

WISHOCRACY: SOLVING THE DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM THROUGH PAIRWISE PREFERENCE AGGREGATION

WISHOCRACY: SOLVING THE DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM THROUGH PAIRWISE PREFERENCE AGGREGATION

REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY SUFFERS FROM AN INESCAPABLE PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM WHERE ELECTED OFFICIALS' INCENTIVES DIVERGE FROM CITIZEN WELFARE. WISHOCRACY INTRODUCES RAPPA (RANDOMIZED AGGREGATED PAIRWISE PREFERENCE ALLOCATION), WHICH AGGREGATES CITIZEN PREFERENCES THROUGH COGNITIVELY TRACTABLE PAIRWISE COMPARISONS AND CREATES ACCOUNTABILITY VIA CITIZEN ALIGNMENT SCORES THAT CHANNEL ELECTORAL RESOURCES TOWARD POLITICIANS WHO ACTUALLY REPRESENT WHAT CITIZENS WANT.

THE PRICE OF POLITICAL CHANGE: A COST-BENEFIT FRAMEWORK FOR POLICY INCENTIVIZATION

THE PRICE OF POLITICAL CHANGE: A COST-BENEFIT FRAMEWORK FOR POLICY INCENTIVIZATION

WHAT'S THE MAXIMUM COST TO ACHIEVE ANY POLICY CHANGE THROUGH LEGAL DEMOCRATIC CHANNELS? $25B FOR THE US, $200B GLOBALLY. FOR HIGH-VALUE REFORMS LIKE MILITARY-TO-HEALTH REALLOCATION, THIS YIELDS ROI EXCEEDING 400,000:1.

THE HEALTH AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF A GLOBAL SYSTEM FOR PRAGMATIC CLINICAL TRIALS

THE HEALTH AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF A GLOBAL SYSTEM FOR PRAGMATIC CLINICAL TRIALS

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF A DECENTRALIZED FRAMEWORK FOR DRUG ASSESSMENT (DFDA). WITH $21.8B/YEAR IN PRAGMATIC TRIAL FUNDING, THE FRAMEWORK COULD SAVE 10.7B DEATHS (95% CI: 7.39B DEATHS-16.2B DEATHS) AND AVERT 565B DALYS (95% CI: 361B DALYS-877B DALYS) AT $0.841 (95% CI: $0.242-$1.75) PER DALY, WHILE GENERATING $58.6B (95% CI: $49.2B-$73.1B) IN ANNUAL R&D SAVINGS.

SO DO YOU LIKE STUFF?

I BUILT PLATFORMS TO ANALYZE HEALTH DATA AT SCALE. CHRONIC ILLNESS REMAINS UNIMPRESSED.

50,000+

OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES

AGGREGATED & ANALYZED TO DETERMINE EFFECTS OF FOODS, DRUGS, AND SUPPLEMENTS

90%+

META-ANALYSES

COVERAGE FOR CONDITION/TREATMENT PAIRS USING OPEN-SOURCE PLATFORMS

9+

ACTIVE PROJECTS

OPEN-SOURCE PLATFORMS FOR HEALTH DATA ANALYSIS AND POLICY RESEARCH

WHAT I'M BUILDING

WHAT IF CLINICAL TRIALS COST $500 INSTEAD OF $41,000 PER PARTICIPANT?

82× CHEAPER. 8× FASTER. 416M LIVES SAVED. HERE'S WHAT I'M BUILDING TO MAKE IT HAPPEN.

Decentralized FDA
PROJECTREGULATORY DELUSION

Decentralized FDA

A system optimized for saving lives rather than avoiding lawsuits. 50,000+ observational studies analyzed. Meta-analyses for 90%+ of condition-treatment pairs. Treatment rankings for 100+ conditions. The current FDA approval process takes 10+ years and costs $2.6B per drug. During that time, between 11,000 and 115,000 people die who could have been saved if the drug had been approved immediately. There are roughly 1.16 quadrillion possible drug combinations we haven't tested. At the current pace, we'll finish testing them all in approximately never. The dFDA could accelerate clinical discovery by 80X. Which, if my math is correct, means we could map the entire space of possible treatments in about 45 minutes.

Global Survey on the 1% Treaty
PROJECTOPTIMISTIC SPREADSHEETS

Global Survey on the 1% Treaty

Redirect 1% of global military spending to health research. Save 416 million lives. 700× more effective than current spending. I sent this proposal to everyone with the power to implement it. They have enthusiastically ignored me. When your last name is Sinn, you take validation wherever you can find it.

Think by Numbers
PROJECTSHOUTING INTO VOID

Think by Numbers

Data-driven policy analysis. Articles like 'The War on Drugs Increases Drug Deaths' and 'We Spend More on Corporate Welfare Than Social Welfare.' 2 million people read these. The policy remains exactly the same. But I made some really compelling charts and I stand by them.

CureDAO
PROJECTDAO

CureDAO

A DAO focused on clinical research. That's a lot of technical jargon, so let me translate: imagine if Wikipedia and a clinical trial had a baby that was raised by blockchain. The result is a platform where anyone can contribute to medical research without needing permission from a committee of very tired people in lab coats.

Wishonia
PROJECTAI EXPERIMENT

Wishonia

An autonomous agent platform where AI tries to solve global problems. The agents are very enthusiastic. Their success rate is still being calculated. But they never sleep and they never complain, which is more than I can say for myself.

Decentralized Institutes of Health
PROJECTPLATFORM

Decentralized Institutes of Health

A hub for digital health intelligence. At some point I decided that having multiple platforms was a good idea. The jury is still out on this decision.

Wishocracy
PROJECTECONOMIC THEORY

Wishocracy

Aggregated Pairwise Preference Allocation. If that sounds like something from an economics paper written at 3 AM after too much coffee, you are correct. It's a mechanism for democratic resource allocation. Whether anyone will ever use it remains unclear. But the math is elegant and that has to count for something.

How to End War and Disease
PROJECTDOCUMENTATION

How to End War and Disease

Comprehensive documentation for the War on Disease initiative. I wrote a lot of words explaining how to save 416 million lives. The manual is very thorough. The implementation remains theoretical.

The Plutonium Kidz
PROJECTMUSIC (LOOSELY DEFINED)

The Plutonium Kidz

The Plutonium Kidz were born of a secret government program involving the testing of plutonium exposure on human subjects. Through these experiments three normal children were thus transformed into the Plutonium Kidz! The government program, regrettably, remains classified.

RECENT RESEARCH

192+ PUBLICATIONS ON CLINICAL RESEARCH, POLICY ANALYSIS, AND THE OPTIMAL ALLOCATION OF SOCIETAL RESOURCES.

Wishocracy
ARTICLEMECHANISM DESIGN

Wishocracy

This paper introduces Wishocracy, a governance mechanism that employs Randomized Aggregated Pairwise Preference Allocation (RAPPA) to elicit and synthesize collective preferences for public resource allocation. By decomposing n-dimensional preference spaces into tractable pairwise comparisons, the mechanism reduces cognitive burden while preserving preference intensity.

dFDA: A Decentralized Framework for Drug Assessment Using Two-Stage Real-World Evidence Validation
ARTICLECLINICAL TRIAL META-ANALYSIS

dFDA: A Decentralized Framework for Drug Assessment Using Two-Stage Real-World Evidence Validation

We present the Predictor Impact Score (PIS), a novel composite metric operationalizing Bradford Hill causality criteria for automated signal detection from aggregated N-of-1 observational studies. Combined with pragmatic trial confirmation (based on evidence from 108+ embedded trials), this two-stage framework generates validated outcome labels at ~44x lower cost than traditional Phase III trials. This enables continuous, population-scale pharmacovigilance and precision dosing recommendations.

Decentralized Institutes of Health
ARTICLEMECHANISM DESIGN

Decentralized Institutes of Health

A thin coordination protocol that makes doing the highest-ROI thing toward disease eradication the selfish choice for every actor.

FIND ANYTHING

200+ ARTICLES, VIDEOS, PODCASTS, AND PROJECTS.

YOU
CAN FIX THIS

THEY SAY ONE PERSON CAN CHANGE THE WORLD. THEY NEVER MENTION THE SPREADSHEETS. VOTE NOW AND HELP ME TEST THIS THEORY.